Why Economists are Never Right
1 min readJan 10, 2017
Predicting events that depend on complicated and/or impossible to determine inputs almost never goes well. It’s why meteorologists can’t predict weather very accurately and it’s why “not one of the 62 recessions in 2008 and 2009 world-wide was predicted by the average collected by Consensus Economics.”
What’s even trickier is that by simply making predictions, economists change the economic environment in which they operate. It’s the observer effect that makes economic predictions — especially by those with a history of correct predictions — impossible to get completely right.
